Will Iran Start a War to Break the Embargo Chains?

Op-Ed: Economic sanctions weaken Iran, but its leaders remain defiant

By Eliot Elwar

Oct 21, 2012 

Iran’s problems worsen as it claims that ‘dozens’ of its drones reached Israel, Iranians are beginning to panic amid rising costs, while Western officials assess that Iran’s economy is imploding quickly. A Mideast war may occur before 2013.

From Ynet News: Top Iranian military official says Iranian-made surveillance drones have been entering Israeli airspace undetected since 2006, but Israeli official denies claim. The Iranian official declined to give details on the drones’ missions and capabilities, including whether they were similar to the unmanned aircraft launched recently by Lebanon's Hezbollah and downed by Israeli combat aircraft. A few defense analysts wonder if Iran’s new advanced drone technology originated from the US drone that was taken by Iran in 2011.

From Gulf Times: While Iran has been attempting to down play the negative effects of international sanctions on its declining economy, the economic crisis engulfing the nation can no longer be ignored. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s collapsing regime now speaks of “economic warfare,” while Iranians continue to panic about their deteriorating situation and are asking themselves what will happen when the war begins. Analysts assess that Iran’s collapsing economy could force it into war before 2013. An economic collapse will cripple Iran’s war making capabilities; therefore, Iran could attack Israel first before it becomes financially incapable of wiping the Jewish state of the Mideast map.

From the Los Angeles Times: Western governments assess that Iran’s economy is imploding rapidly. Iran could essentially collapse next spring because of the combined pressure from international sanctions, an oil embargo, and internal mismanagement by officials in Tehran. Western government analysts believe that Iran will lack foreign exchange reserves within 6 or 12 months, making it difficult for the Islamic Republic to sell products abroad and buy the imports it needs to continue its manufacturing sector and run public services. The faster Iran’s economy collapses the more likely it will attack Israel.

From Jerusalem Post: According to Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman, tough new European Union sanctions on Iran will not force Tehran back into negotiations with world powers over its nuclear program. "We think the error in calculation which these countries are pursuing will distance them from a favorable result," said Ramin Mehmanparast, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman. "We recommend that instead of taking the wrong approach and being stubborn and using pressure...with a logical approach they can return to discussions." These comments confirm that Iran is on a course for war with Israel and nothing will stop them, but military force rather than economic sanctions.

From the Times of Israel: “Iran is considering the option of artificially producing an enormous environmental disaster that would affect the entire region, in order to punish its enemies and force the West to decrease the sanctions against the regime, Der Spiegel reported on Sunday. According to Western intelligence agencies quoted by the German news weekly, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have developed a secret plan to intentionally cause an oil tanker to contaminate the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.” When the bombs begin to fall, Iran may execute this unconventional military operation. Iran’s military leaders do not plan on fighting the West according to the rules of the Geneva Convention.

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